Longitudinal Risk Prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease in Diabetic Patients Using a Temporal-Enhanced Gradient Boosting Machine: Retrospective Cohort Study

Artificial intelligence-enabled electronic health record (EHR) analysis can revolutionize medical practice from the diagnosis and prediction of complex diseases to making recommendations in patient care, especially for chronic conditions such as chronic kidney disease (CKD), which is one of the most frequent complications in patients with diabetes and is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. The longitudinal prediction of health outcomes requires effective representation of temporal data in the EHR. In this study, we proposed a novel temporal-enhanced gradient boosting machine (GBM) model that dynamically updates and ensembles learners based on new events in patient timelines to improve the prediction accuracy of CKD among patients with diabetes. Using a broad spectrum of deidentified EHR data on a retrospective cohort of 14,039 adult patients with type 2 diabetes and GBM as the base learner, we validated our proposed Landmark-Boosting model against three state-of-the-art temporal models for rolling predictions of 1-year CKD risk. The proposed model uniformly outperformed other models, achieving an area under receiver operating curve of 0.83 (95% CI 0.76-0.85), 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.82), and 0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.86) in predicting CKD risk with automatic accumulation of new data in later years (years 2, 3, and 4 since diabetes mellitus onset, respectively). The Landmark-Boosting model also maintained the best calibration across moderate- and high-risk groups and over time. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed temporal model can not only accurately predict 1-year CKD risk but also improve performance over time with additionally accumulated data, which is essential for clinical use to improve renal management of patients with diabetes. Incorporation of temporal information in EHR data can significantly improve predictive model performance and will particularly benefit patients who follow-up with their physicians as recommended.