South Florida’s Encroachment of the Sea and Environmental Transformation over the 21st Century

South Florida encompasses a dynamic confluence of urban and natural ecosystems strongly connected to ocean and freshwater hydrologic forcings. Low land elevation, flat topography and highly transmissive aquifers place both communities at the nexus of environmental and ecological transformation driven by rising sea level. Based on a local sea level rise projection, we examine regional inundation impacts and employ hydrographic records in Florida Bay and the southern Everglades to assess water level exceedance dynamics and landscape-relevant tipping points. Intrinsic mode functions of water levels across the coastal interface are used to gauge the relative influence and time-varying transformation potential of estuarine and freshwater marshes into a marine-dominated environment with the introduction of a Marsh-to-Ocean transformation index (MOI).