PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR AIRPORT RUNWAY SAFETY AREAS

The Laboratory of Aviation Safety and Security at CTU in Prague has recently started a project aimed at runway protection zones. The probability of exceeding by a certain distance from the runway in common incident/accident scenarios (takeoff/landing overrun/veer-off, landing undershoot) is being identified relative to the runway for any airport. As a result, the size and position of safety areas around runways are defined for the chosen probability. The basis for probability calculation is a probabilistic model using statistics from more than 1400 real-world cases where jet airplanes have been involved over the last few decades. Other scientific studies have contributed to understanding the issue and supported the model's application to different conditions. Keywords: take-off; landing; runway; safety area; probability; distance