Characterizing Critical Transition State for Network Fundamental Diagram

Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) reveals the relationship between network accumulation and flow at the macroscopic level. The network traffic flow state analysis is a fundamental problem for the MFD-based applications. Theoretical and experimental investigations have provided insights into the dynamics and characters of traffic flow states. Although many empirical studies had been conducted in the field of MFD, few studies were dedicated to investigate the network traffic flow states with field data. This study aims to develop a data-driven method based on time series analysis of MFD state points to characterize critical transition state (CTS) of network traffic flow using field data. The proposed method was tested in a real network of Kunshan City, China. The test results showed that the CTS points can be well captured by the proposed method. The identified CTS points distinguished the traffic states between free-flow state and optimal accumulation state, and the optimal accumulation state was characterized. The day-to-day pattern of CTS points was investigated by the Gaussian Mixture Model-based clustering model. An extended application of real-time identification of CTS points was also discussed. The proposed method is helpful to understand the temporal evolution process of network traffic flow and provides potentials for developing more reliable network traffic flow management strategies, such as optimizing traffic signal plans and developing strategies for congestion tooling.