Regional variability in trajectories of Barn Swallow populations across Canada are not predicted by breeding performance

Conservation of migratory species depends on an understanding of the drivers causing population declines across the annual cycle. Since it is difficult to track the entire annual cycle for long-distance migrants, measurements from part of the cycle may provide insights into overall drivers. Barn Swallows (Hirundo rustica) in Canada have undergone steep and long-term population declines. Using Breeding Bird Survey data and breeding performance data collected at field sites in three regions across Canada, we examined long- and short-term Barn Swallow population trends in Canada, differences in breeding performance across regions, if average breeding performance measures or colony size predicted regional population growth rates and if local breeding performance is driven by density dependence and/or recruitment. We found that long-term negative population trends were generally stronger in the east and west, and weaker in central Canada. Short-term population trends were generally weakly negative or neutral. Average breeding performance and colony size were poor predictors of regional growth rates observed in the subsequent year. We found little support for density dependence affecting local breeding performance; however, local breeding success, presumably through subsequent recruitment of young, was positively correlated to changes in local colony size in the following year. Since we found juveniles recruited into colonies located in the same region, but no link between average breeding performance and estimated regional population trajectories, our results suggest that extrapolating from local-scale studies to broader populations is challenging, and other demographic rates (i.e., survival) may need to be considered. Overall, our study suggests that contemporary Barn Swallow populations are below carrying capacity in Canada, further suggesting that food limitation is not currently regulating populations. Further study is needed to understand what factors are limiting and regulating Barn Swallow populations in Canada, across the annual cycle.