TP53 signature predicts pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer: Observational and confirmational study using prospective study cohorts

•TP53 signature can predict the pathological complete response in breast cancer.•TP53 signature is a predictor for survival benefit from neoadjuvant chemotherapy.•Benefit from chemotherapy is grater in mutant than in wild-type signature group. The TP53 signature is considered a predictor of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) response and prognostic factor in breast cancer. The objective of this study was to confirm TP53 signature can predict pathological complete response (pCR) and prognosis in cohorts of breast cancer patients who received NAC in prospective studies. Development cohorts (retrospective [n = 37] and prospective [n = 216] cohorts) and validation cohorts (NAC administered prospective study cohorts [n = 407] and retrospective perioperative chemotherapy (PC)-naïve, hormone receptor (HrR)-positive cohort [PC-naïve_HrR+ cohort] [n = 322]) were used. TP53 signature diagnosis kit was developed using the development cohorts. TP53 signature predictability for pCR and the relationship between recurrence-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), and the TP53 signature were analyzed. The pCR rate of the mutant (mt) signature group was significantly higher than that of the wild-type (wt) signature group (odds ratio, 5.599; 95 % confidence interval = 1.876–16.705; P = 0.0008). The comparison of the RFS and OS between the HrR+ and HER2− subgroup of the NAC cohort and of the PC-naïve_HrR+ cohort indicated that the RFS and OS benefit of NAC was greater in the mt signature group than in the wt signature group. From post hoc analyses, the RFS and OS benefit from adding capecitabine to FEC+T as NAC might be observed only in the mt signature group. The TP53 signature can predict the pCR after NAC, and the RFS and OS benefit from NAC may be greater in the mt signature group than in the wt signature group.