Modeling of E. coli distribution for hazard assessment of bathing waters affected by combined sewer overflows

Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) affect bathing water quality of receiving water bodies by bacterial pollution. The aim of this study is to assess the health hazard of bathing waters affected by CSOs. This is useful for bathing water managers, for risk assessment purposes, and for further impact and economic assessments. Pollutant hazard was evaluated based on two novel indicators proposed in this study: the mean duration of insufficient bathing water quality (1) over a period of time (i.e., several years) and (2) after single CSO/rain events. In particular, a novel correlation between the duration of seawater pollution and the event rainfall volume was developed. Pollutant hazard was assessed through a coupled urban drainage and seawater quality model that was developed, calibrated and validated based on local observations. Furthermore, hazard assessment was based on a novel statistical analysis of continuous simulations over a 9-year period using the coupled model. Finally, a validation of the estimated hazard is also shown. The health hazard was evaluated for the case study of Badalona (Spain) even though the methodology presented can be considered generally applicable to other urban areas and related receiving bathing water bodies. The case study presented is part of the EU-funded H2020 project BINGO (Bringing INnovation to OnGOing water management – a better future under climate change).