Demographic and Human Capital Heterogeneity in Selected Provinces of Turkey: A Scenario Analysis Using Multi-dimensional Population Projection Model

Turkey is a geographically diverse country and two important components of that diversity is demographic and the level of education. Regions of the country vary markedly in the age structure of the population and even more conspicuously in such characteristics as fertility, mortality, and migration and the level of educational attainment. The purpose of this study is mainly to explore the effect of various demographic and education scenarios on the size and the structure of the population in five selected provinces that are representative of four fertility regions of Turkey. Three scenarios were defined namely: "Euro" in which Turkey joins European Union, "Medium" as a continuation of trend, and "Three Children" in which Turkey becomes more conservative. We defined set of assumptions for fertility, mortality, migration, and education and these assumptions were implemented in a multi-state population projection model to project the population by age, sex and educational attainment in five selected provinces from 2010 to 2050. Under all scenarios, population in the five provinces will grow between 2010 and 2050. Under Euro and Medium scenario, the population of children will diminish and the population of elderly and those in the age-group 15-64 will increase in all scenarios. In terms of education, as expected a rapid transformation will take place under Euro scenarios with more homogenous and higher level of human capital across Turkey, whereas, under the Three Children scenario, Turkey will continue to be a heterogeneous society with a lower level of human capital.