Projecting traffic flows for road-based passenger transport in Europe for the analysis of climate impact

Road-based transport is a significant contributor to global transport emissions of greenhouse gases and local pollutants, thus contributing to the environmental impact of the mobility of people and goods. In order to develop strategies to mitigate this impact, it is necessary to build reliable emission inventories that include sector-specific emissions. Furthermore, the methods for creating these inventories should be applicable for forecasts and scenario calculations to facilitate the evaluation of pathways towards a more sustainable transport system. The study at hand proposes a model-based framework to predict travel demand and its spatial distribution for a bottom-up calculation of road transport emissions in Europe. With this framework, it is possible to calculate emissions based on the road network structure, traffic flows and vehicle types. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the framework for scenario calculations, it is applied to three exemplary scenarios where population data is modified. With the developed methodology, a tool for the large-scale assessment of emissions from road transport is provided, which is able to simulate the impact of socio-economic and economic changes on these emissions.