A novel energy-water-carbon coupling system optimization management model based on water environmental carrying capacity under the influence of climate change

Under climate change, the ability of water bodies to maintain ecology and human activities becomes more fragile, leading to water shortages. The change in the carrying capacity of the water environment further intensifies the management difficulties of the resource-environment-economic system. This study aims to establish a comprehensive framework that integrates an interval fuzzy program and water environmental carrying capacity assessment model to obtain the optimal state of the energy-water-carbon coupling system by promoting industrial structure adjustment. It is demonstrated that a 10 % reduction in carbon emissions leads to a 15 % increase in the water environmental carrying capacity of the Huangshui watershed. Under the influence of climate change, total energy consumption and carbon emissions show a downward trend. Water consumption per unit of output, energy consumption and carbon emission management policies are highly related and are the main control points for policymakers. The developed model simultaneously considers industrial structure optimization and water environment carrying capacity, and assists in formulating the energy-water-carbon balanced management policies to promote the sustainability of the regional environ-economic system. •A complex model based on dual water environmental carrying capacity optimizes the energy-water-carbon system.•Multiple scenarios analyze climate change uncertainties under various concentration paths.•Applied to China's Huangshui basin, balancing economy, energy, water, carbon, and environment.•Analyzes synergy between different management policies.