Spatial-temporal analysis of hepatitis E in Hainan Province, China (2013-2022): insights from four major hospitals

Exploring the Incidence, Epidemic Trends, and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Sporadic Hepatitis E in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022 through four major tertiary hospitals in the Province. We collected data on confirmed cases of hepatitis E in Hainan residents admitted to the four major tertiary hospitals in Haikou City from January 2013 to December 2022. We used SPSS software to analyze the correlation between incidence rate and economy, population density and geographical location, and origin software to draw a scatter chart and SAS 9.4 software to conduct a descriptive analysis of the time trend. The distribution was analyzed using ArcMap 10.8 software (spatial autocorrelation analysis, hotspot identification, concentration, and dispersion trend analysis). SAS software was used to build an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) to predict the monthly number of cases in 2023 and 2024. From 2013 to 2022, 1,922 patients with sporadic hepatitis E were treated in the four hospitals of Hainan Province. The highest proportion of patients ( = 555, 28.88%) were aged 50-59 years. The annual incidence of hepatitis E increased from 2013 to 2019, with a slight decrease in 2020 and 2021 and an increase in 2022. The highest number of cases was reported in Haikou, followed by Dongfang and Danzhou. We found that there was a correlation between the economy, population density, latitude, and the number of cases, with the correlation coefficient |r| value fluctuating between 0.403 and 0.421, indicating a linear correlation. At the same time, a scatter plot shows the correlation between population density and incidence from 2013 to 2022, with r values fluctuating between 0.5405 and 0.7116, indicating a linear correlation. Global Moran's I, calculated through spatial autocorrelation analysis, showed that each year from 2013 to 2022 all had a Moran's I value >0, indicating positive spatial autocorrelation (