Pathways to Better Prediction of the MJO: 2. Impacts of Atmosphere‐Ocean Coupling on the Upper Ocean and MJO Propagation

This study investigates effects of atmosphere‐ocean coupling on MJO precipitation and eastward propagation, and upper ocean conditions during and after MJO passage. To explore pathways for improving MJO prediction, three model experiments are conducted using the Unified Wave Interface‐Coupled Model at convection‐permitting (4 km) resolution: (a) uncoupled atmosphere‐only, (b) coupled atmosphere‐ocean, and (c) coupled atmosphere‐ocean with improved air‐sea flux algorithm simulations. The model simulations are compared with observations from the DYNAMO field campaign in 2011. Both coupled atmosphere‐ocean simulations produced eastward propagation of the MJO where the uncoupled, atmosphere‐only simulation did not. The uncoupled model overestimates both precipitation and surface winds associated with the MJO, while coupled model simulations substantially reduce model bias. Improved air‐sea fluxes lead to systematic improvements in precipitation, winds, sea surface temperature, and the ocean mixed layer when compared to the original coupled simulation. This leads to further improvement of the MJO's eastward propagation speed compared with observations. Despite these improvements, the regional coupled simulations still have difficulty representing the extent of convectively suppressed conditions in the Indian Ocean after MJO passage, which indicates the importance of the large‐scale environment from lateral boundary conditions. Coupled model simulations also reveal some issues in the representation of upper ocean stratification in the ocean model, especially errors in salinity, which result in overestimation of the mixed layer depth after MJO passage. Plain Language Summary Although the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been recognized as a coupled atmosphere‐ocean phenomenon in some previous studies, systematic investigations of the air‐sea interaction processes and how they affect the MJO prediction are still lacking. This study focuses on better understanding of the atmosphere‐ocean coupling and their impacts on two key characteristics of the MJO: precipitation and eastward propagation. A novelty of this study is that we provide quantitative measure of the impacts by comparing coupled atmosphere‐ocean simulations with uncoupled atmosphere‐only simulation against observations from the DYNAMO field campaign in 2011. All model simulations are conducted using a cloud‐permitting high resolution (4 km grid spacing) that can better represent moist physics and atmo