County-level carbon emissions in the guanzhong area of Shaanxi province: towards achieving China’s dual carbon goals

China’s rapid urbanization has significantly impacted carbon emissions in rural areas, driving the need for region-specific carbon management strategies to achieve the country’s dual carbon goals. However, previous research has primarily focused on large urban centers, leaving a gap in understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions at the county level in rural regions. This study focuses on the Guanzhong region of Shaanxi Province and develops a county-level carbon emission accounting system based on geographic, socio-economic, and land-use data. The carbon emissions are categorized into energy, industrial processes, agriculture, and waste management. Key findings indicate that industrial and residential sectors are the primary contributors to carbon emissions, with Xi’an being the largest emitter. Carbon emission intensity follows a ranking of Xi’an < Weinan < Baoji < Xianyang < Tongchuan. Spatial patterns show a “core-edge” distribution, with higher emissions in urban centers and lower emissions in rural areas. The study also highlights the carbon sink potential in the southern Qinling National Park. This research provides a valuable framework for rural low-carbon development and offers critical insights for policymakers aiming to balance carbon reduction and economic growth in rural China.