Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Mechanisms of Ecosystem Service Value in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China

The Tarim River Basin (TRB) is situated in the hinterland of northwest China, which is an extremely arid and fragile ecological zone. In recent years, the region’s ecological civilization construction has been facing huge challenges that are exacerbated by climate change and human activities. In order to verify the current ecological status of TRB, this paper explores the spatial and temporal variation in ecosystem service value (ESV) and the impact mechanism based on LUCC data from 2000 to 2020, using the adjusted unit area value equivalent method, the elasticity index method and the geo-probe analysis method. The results show that: (1) the ESV of the TRB has fluctuated since 2000, increasing by CNY 14.02 billion, especially in the Hotan River region. Among the individual ecosystem services, the increase in regulatory services is the largest, rising to CNY 8.842 billion. The growth of ESV mostly occurred in the mountains and oases. (2) The rise in ESV is mainly due to the conversion of barren land to water and grassland; ESV loss is mainly affected by the conversion of water to cropland and barren land and grassland to cropland and barren land. (3) Human activity impact or intensity (HAI) is the key driving factor for the spatial stratified heterogeneity of ESV, followed by elevation (DEM). In the interaction analysis, HAI∩DEM interaction is the primary reason for ESV’s spatial differentiation. The study’s findings show that the combined effects of human activities, DEM, and hydrothermal conditions underlie the spatial stratified heterogeneity of ESV in the TRB. This conclusion provides a scientific basis for future ecological civilization construction planning.