Estimates of the global burden of non-Hodgkin lymphoma attributable to HIV: a population attributable modeling studyResearch in context

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) significantly increases the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) development, yet the population-level impact on NHL burden is unquantified. We aim to quantify this association and estimate the global burden of HIV-associated NHL. Methods: In this meta-analysis, we searched five databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus) from database inception up to September 13, 2023, identifying cohort, case–control, or cross-sectional studies with an effective control group to assess NHL risk among individuals with HIV infection, with two authors extracting summary data from reports. Global and regional HIV-associated population attributable fraction (PAF) and NHL disease burden were calculated based on the pooled risk ratio (RR). HIV prevalence and NHL incidence were obtained from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. Trends in NHL incidence due to HIV were assessed using age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023404150). Findings: Out of 14,929 literature sources, 39 articles met our inclusion criteria. The risk of NHL was significantly increased in the population living with HIV (pooled RR 23.51, 95% CI 17.62–31.37; I2 = 100%, p