How will permafrost carbon respond to future climate change? A new assessment for future thaw trends of permafrost carbon on the Tibetan Plateau

•Quantified future thaw trends of frozen carbon on the TP based on 15 GCMs.•Compared frozen carbon thaw under two schemes with and without permafrost area shrinkage.•Underscored the pivotal role of permafrost area shrinkage in quantifying frozen carbon thaw.•Emphasized the tremendous potential for future carbon emissions from the TP permafrost area. Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is anticipated to result in the thaw of permafrost carbon. Existing studies have been conducted to assess the future thaw of frozen carbon on the TP, primarily focusing on the deepening of the active layer while neglecting the impact of permafrost area shrinkage. This oversight may lead to a significant underestimation of the potential thaw of frozen carbon. Our research underscores the pivotal role of permafrost area shrinkage in estimating the future thaw of frozen carbon. Our findings reveal that when the combined effects of permafrost area shrinkage and active layer deepening are considered, the thaw rates of frozen carbon in various radiative forcing scenarios are nearly four times those based on active layer deepening alone. Notably, our results demonstrate substantial thaw of frozen organic carbon in the TP permafrost area under all four future scenarios: In the low radiative forcing scenario SSP1-2.6, it is predicted that 55.4 % of the organic carbon in the permafrost area 0–10 m soils will be in a state of thaw by 2100, and more than 90 % in the high radiative forcing scenario SSP5-8.5. This substantial thaw is poised to diminish the TP's current carbon sink function significantly. Our study emphasizes that as global warming persists, frozen carbon in permafrost areas will play a more active role in global carbon cycle processes in the future. Furthermore, we stress the importance of considering permafrost area shrinkage in understanding the thaw of frozen carbon, providing valuable insights for carbon balance studies on the TP.