Evaluation of eight Bayesian genomic prediction models for three micronutrient traits in bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

In wheat, genomic prediction accuracy (GPA) was assessed for three micronutrient traits (grain iron, grain zinc, and β‐carotenoid concentrations) using eight Bayesian regression models. For this purpose, data on 246 accessions, each genotyped with 17,937 DArT markers, were utilized. The phenotypic data on traits were available for 2013–2014 from Powerkheda (Madhya Pradesh) and for 2014–2015 from Meerut (Uttar Pradesh), India. The accuracy of the models was measured in terms of reliability, which was computed following a repeated cross‐validation approach. The predictions were obtained independently for each of the two environments after adjusting for the local effects and across environments after adjusting for the environmental effects. The Bayes ridge regression (BayesRR) model outperformed the other seven models, whereas BayesLASSO (BayesL) was the least efficient. The GPA increased with an increase in the size of the training set as well as with an increase in marker density. The GPA values differed for the three traits and were higher for the best linear unbiased estimate (BLUE) (obtained after adjusting for the environmental effects) relative to those for the two environments. The GPA also remained unaffected after accounting for the population structure. The results of the present study suggest that only the best model should be used for the estimations of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) before their use for genomic selection to improve the grain micronutrient contents. Core Ideas Genomic selection for three micronutrient traits in wheat was evaluated using eight Bayesian regression models. The Bayesian ridge regression model was found to be the most reliable method for genomic prediction. Genomic prediction accuracy increased with an increase in the size of the training population and marker density. The best linear unbiased estimate (BLUE) values were seen to be the most appropriate for use as response variables for genomic prediction.