Comparison of Lives Saved Tool model child mortality estimates against measured data from vector control studies in sub-Saharan Africa

Insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) and indoor-residual spraying have been scaled-up across sub-Saharan Africa as part of international efforts to control malaria. These interventions have the potential to significantly impact child survival. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was developed to provide national and regional estimates of cause-specific mortality based on the extent of intervention coverage scale-up. We compared the percent reduction in all-cause child mortality estimated by LiST against measured reductions in all-cause child mortality from studies assessing the impact of vector control interventions in Africa. We performed a literature search for appropriate studies and compared reductions in all-cause child mortality estimated by LiST to 4 studies that estimated changes in all-cause child mortality following the scale-up of vector control interventions. The following key parameters measured by each study were applied to available country projections: baseline all-cause child mortality rate, proportion of mortality due to malaria, and population coverage of vector control interventions at baseline and follow-up years. The percent reduction in all-cause child mortality estimated by the LiST model fell within the confidence intervals around the measured mortality reductions for all 4 studies. Two of the LiST estimates overestimated the mortality reductions by 6.1 and 4.2 percentage points (33% and 35% relative to the measured estimates), while two underestimated the mortality reductions by 4.7 and 6.2 percentage points (22% and 25% relative to the measured estimates). The LiST model did not systematically under- or overestimate the impact of ITNs on all-cause child mortality. These results show the LiST model to perform reasonably well at estimating the effect of vector control scale-up on child mortality when compared against measured data from studies across a range of malaria transmission settings. The LiST model appears to be a useful tool in estimating the potential mortality reduction achieved from scaling-up malaria control interventions.