Relevance of the type III error in epidemiological maps

A type III error arises from a two-sided test, when one side is erroneously favoured although the true effect actually resides on the other side. The relevance of this grave error in decision-making is studied for epidemiological maps. Theoretical considerations confirm that a type III error may be large for regions with small numbers of expected cases even when no spatial smoothing has been performed. A simulation study based on infant mortality data in Austria reveals that spatial smoothing may additionally increase the risk of type III errors. The occurrence of a type III error should be taken into account when interpreting results presented in epidemiological maps, particularly with regard to sparsely populated regions and spatial smoothing.