Delayed response of net primary productivity with climate change in the Yiluo River basin

Climatic factors are the main drivers that change net primary productivity (NPP). We chose the Yiluo River Basin as the study area to investigate the response of NPP to climatic factors in the Yellow River’s middle reaches. The temporal and spatial distribution of net primary productivity and the trend change of slope in the basin from 2000 to 2020 are analyzed. In addition, we analyzed the correlation between the NPP and climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and the time-lag effect. The results show that 1) the annual average NPP in the basin is 556.4 gC/m 2 /a, the maximum value that occurred in 2019. Most of the NPP’s mutation points in the basin’s forest appeared in 2004, while the NPP’s mutation points in arable land mostly appeared in 2008 and 2009. 2) The slope trend analysis result of NPP from 2000 to 2020 shows that the NPP in 67.88% of the basin shows a significant increasing trend, 3.8% of the basin shows a significant decrease, and the other area show no significant change. 3) The correlation analysis between NPP and climatic factors shows a positive correlation between precipitation and NPP in 62.3% of the basin and a positive correlation between air temperature and NPP in 62.5%. The response of NPP to precipitation and temperature in the basin has different degrees of a time-lag effect. The NPP has a time-lag effect on precipitation in 44.8% of the basin, and its mean lag time is 8 days. NPP has a time-lag effect on temperature in 55.7% of the basin, and its mean lag time is 1 day. This study is beneficial to understanding the influence of climatic factor change on vegetation activities in the Yiluo River Basin. Our study illustrates the significance of time lag in analyzing the relationship between NPP and climatic factors. Furthermore, it provides support for scientific vegetation regulation and allocation, as well as adaptation to climate change in areas similar to the Loess Plateau, based on the lag time distribution corresponding to different vegetation types in different regions of the Yiluo River Basin. After that, these areas’ water resources will be fully utilized by vegetation, and ecological restoration could be accelerated.