Machine learning progressive CKD risk prediction model is associated with CKD-mineral bone disorder

Recently, we developed the machine learning (ML)-based Progressive CKD Risk Classifier (PCRC), which accurately predicts CKD progression within 5 years. While its performance is robust, it is unknown whether PCRC categorization is associated with CKD-mineral bone disorder (CKD-MBD), a critical, yet under-recognized, downstream consequence. Therefore, we aimed to 1) survey real-world testing utilization data for CKD-MBD and 2) evaluate ML-based PCRC categorization with CKD-MBD. The cohort study utilized deidentified data from a US laboratory outpatient network, composed of 330,238 outpatients, over 5 years. The main outcomes were: 1) Laboratory testing utilization of eGFR, urine albumin creatinine ratio (UACR), parathyroid hormone (PTH), calcium, phosphate; and 2) PCRC categorization and biochemical abnormalities associated with CKD-MBD over 5 years. We identified significant under-utilization of laboratory testing for UACR, phosphate and PTH, which ranged from −40 % to −100 % against the minimum standard-of-care. At five years, the CKD progression group, as predicted by the PCRC, was associated with 15.5 % increase in phosphate (P value