Kidnapping as a long-term factor for cruise tourism demand: evidence from Mexico

Cruise tourism is considered as one of the most attractive tourism segments and as one of the safest ways to travel. This document aims to analyse the impact that registered kidnappings have had on long-term cruise tourism. The analysis is carried out using an ARDL model with quarterly time series data for the period 1997Q1 – 2017Q4. The results indicate that the arrivals of cruise tourists has been inelastic in the face of the changes in the number of kidnappings although the negative effect of this violent crime remains in the long-term. Therefore, it is necessary to apply policies that generate the peace and tranquillity that should be given to travellers.