An agent-based socio-hydrological modeling to identify the feedbacks between agricultural irrigation and ecological water conveyance tradeoffs in Hotan River basin

Hotan River basin in Northwest China The conflict between agricultural irrigation and ecological water conveyance is particularly critical in arid inland river basins. Water resource systems involve multiple stakeholders and sectors, complicating the identification of dynamic feedback between agriculture and ecology. This study presents an agent-based socio-hydrological modeling (ABSHM) framework to address these interactions. Feedback is quantified using dynamic state variable of oasis decision-making sensitivity in the Hotan River basin. When this sensitivity ranges from 0.03 to 0.06, water managers prioritize agricultural irrigation, increasing its usage from 8 to 47 million m3 at the expense of ecological water. Conversely, when sensitivity is from 0.015 to 0.03, ecological health requires increasing ecological water use from 27 to 66 million m³ by reducing irrigation. The ABSHM framework effectively captures these dynamic feedback processes, supporting basin water resources management and decision-making. The uniqueness of the ABSHM framework lies in its ability to capture the impact of individual decision-making behaviors on the overall water resource system. This offers new perspectives and approaches for addressing current and future water resource management challenges. [Display omitted] •An agent-based socio-hydrological modeling framework is proposed.•The framework illustrates how to identify feedbacks between the two elements.•Oasis decision sensitivity is used to present dynamic state of oasis security consciousness.•Optimal allocation scheme is determined by maximizing comprehensive benefits.