Prognostic factors after isolated ipsilateral local and regional recurrence in HER2-negative luminal breast cancer: a multi-center retrospective study

Although the incidence of isolated ipsilateral local and regional recurrence (IILRR) in human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2)-negative luminal breast cancer is low, it is important because of its potential risk of distant metastasis and breast cancer related mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate prognostic factor and survival of IILRR using a large multi-center cohort. Data on patients with HER2-negative luminal breast cancer between 2005 and 2015 were retrieved. The endpoint was IILRR rate, post-recurrence progression-free survival (P-PFS), and post-recurrence overall survival (P-OS). Prognostic factors for progression and overall survival (OS) after IILRR were assessed by multivariate analysis. Eighty (2.37%) patients experienced IILRR. Of them, 27 (33.7%) experienced a disease progression, including 23 (85.2%) who had distant metastasis. The median DFS was 48.5 months (range, 4-138 months). In 72.5% of cases, the first IILRR occurred after 3 years. Estimated 5-year P-PFS rates were 86.2%, 69.7%, 69.0%, 42.7%, and 82.2% for patients with age < 40 at diagnosis (p = 0.015), T1 stage (p = 0.012), stage I (p