Analysis of Multi-Modal Public Transit Competing Relationships and Evolutionary Mechanisms in Cities in Cold Regions

In order to reveal the characteristics of the competition and cooperation of multi-modal public transportation in the cities of cold areas and to study the competitive relationship of multi-modal public transportation in cold areas, the urban public transportation system in cold areas is divided into three sub-systems, namely, conventional buses, urban mass transit, and cabs, to analyze the competitive relationship and evolution mechanism of multi-modal public transportation in cities of cold areas. We construct a multi-modal public transit Lotka–Volterra competitiveness model, considering that conventional buses and urban mass transit are mainly dominant in urban public transit systems in cold regions, and introduce the competitive influence effect coefficients and cooperative influence effect coefficients to analyze the mechanism of the evolution of the competitiveness between conventional buses and urban mass transit. The data on traffic supply and demand and travel of the Harbin bus system, a typical city in China, are collected, and the simulation analysis of multi-modal competing relationship and evolution mechanism of conventional bus and urban mass transit competition is carried out, respectively, with Harbin as the research object. The results show that the constructed model can better describe the multi-modal bus competition relationship and evolution mechanism.