Modelo de fluctuación poblacional de moscas de la fruta Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann 1824) y Anastrepha spp (Díptera: Tephritidae) en dos rutas en el municipio de Caranavi, Bolivia

The institutions linked to plant health in Bolivia, propose a trapping methodology, to establish the population fluctuation of fruit fly and execute control activities. PROMOSCA, as a national program, monitored during 3 years, the population fluctuation of this plague, in two routes in Caranavi municipality, La Paz. Present investigation, used the data obtained in field, trapping methodology, environmental and biological cycle variables, to determine the population fluctuation models of Ceratitis capitata and the Anastrepha spp complex, based on a statistical tool Linear Models Generalized Mixed (MLGM), which will serve PROMOSCA and SENASAG, in the control of the fruit fly in the Caranavi area. The minimum adequate model for C. capitata has values of AIC and BIC of 200.13 and 228.15 respectively. Its D2 value is 21.53 for the Anastrepha spp. Complex, it has AIC and BIC values of 256.07 and 288.30 respectively. Its D2 value is 43.91, both models in an acceptable range. There is a correlation between the climate, fruit trees and population fluctuation of the pest. C. capitata reaches its maximum population in August, during the dry season and the ripening of citrus, while Anastrepha spp., in December, coinciding with high temperatures and maturation of mangoes, mangos, avocados and oranges. Evapotranspiration is the main environmental variable for C. capitata, and precipitation, for the genus Anastrepha spp. No covariate related to biological cycle intervenes in the population fluctuation. Validating the two models, it was obtained that the projected data and those obtained in field are directly correlated. An increase of 0.5% in evapotranspiration and precipitation, for C. capitata and the Anastrepha spp. complex, respectively, causes an increase of up to 300% in the population of the pest.