Patterns and probabilities of dry spells and rainfall for improved rain-fed farming in Northwestern Ethiopia

Dry spells and rainfall variability significantly impact rain-fed agriculture in Ethiopia, necessitating targeted adaptation strategies. This study used rainfall data from Ethiopia's Meteorological Institute (1992–2021) to evaluate the likelihood of rainfall and dry spells lasting more than 7, 10, 15, and 20 days in northwestern Ethiopia. Markov chain modeling assessed the probabilities of these events, while Modified Mann–Kendall tests examined trends in dry days at a significance level of P