Spatio-temporal dynamics of ecosystem service values in China’s Northeast Tiger-Leopard National Park from 2005 to 2020: Evidence from environmental factors and land use/land cover changes

The Northeast Tiger-Leopard National Park (NTLNP) in China is an area of great ecological significance, known for its abundant wilderness resources and biodiversity. However, the habitats in NTLNP have been threatened by historical land use and land cover (LULC) changes caused by urban expansion and economic development. In response to this challenge, this study based on remote sensing-derived LULC products from 2005 to 2020, utilized the equivalent factors refined ecosystem service values (ESV) assessment model, and in conjunction with Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* spatial analysis methods to evaluate the macro-scale and pixel-scale spatio-temporal dynamics of ESV in the NTLNP. We also employed the cold and hot spot analysis (CHSA) method to identify zones of ESV improvement and degradation within the NTLNP. Our findings indicate that over the past 15 years: (1) Forestland in the NTLNP possesses the most substantial ESV proportion (97.48%), and the regulating service value is the major contributor among the four types of services (71.31%). (2) Despite a fluctuating trend of increasing, decreasing, and then growing overall ESV growth within the NTLNP, the ecological benefits have been difficult to return to their peak values of 42.184 billion CNY in 2015. (3) The waters of NTLNP exhibit a high LULC dynamic of 27.91%, with an ESV underestimation of 28.4 million CNY. (4) The pixel-scale analysis unveils a dispersed distribution of ESV degradation pixels, with their cumulative area significantly larger than the share of ESV improvement pixels. (5) The CHSA results showed that areas with intensive human activity, such as towns and their surrounding areas, tend to experience ESV degradation, while regions with effective river management, such as the river basin of Hunchun county-level city, experience ESV improvement. Therefore, this study delineates the regulatory zones of the NTLNP by the result of the CHSA-based decision tree, pinpoints ecologically threatened core areas and further categorizes these based on risk levels and types, helping maintain a dynamic balance between the allocation of human and physical resources for park management and the primary conservation needs within the national park. Moreover, the study recommends that policymakers take measures to strengthen risk mitigation, enhance their focus on areas where ESV is fragile, and optimize the allocation of internal resources in national parks.