Mapping anthropogenic mineral generation in China and its implications for a circular economy

Anthropogenic mineral is absorbing wide concern in the context of circular economy, but its generation mechanism and quantity from product to waste remain unclear. Here we consider three product groups, 30 products, and use the revised Weibull lifespan model to map the generation of anthropogenic mineral and 23 types of the capsulated materials by targeting their evolution from 2010 to 2050. Total weight of anthropogenic mineral on average in China reached 39 Mt in 2010, but it will double in 2022 and quadruple in 2045. Stocks of precious metals and rare earths will increase faster than most base materials. The total economic potential in yearly-generated anthropogenic mineral is anticipated to grow markedly from 100 billion US$ in 2020 to 400 billion US$ in 2050. Furthermore, anthropogenic mineral of around 20 materials will be capable to meet projected consumption of three product groups by 2050. While a large quantity of underground mineral resources can be converted into manufactured products, a majority is still solid waste disposal. Here the authors found a large increase in total weight of anthropogenic mineral from 2010 to 2050 with faster growth rate for precious metals.