Scenario-Based Analysis of Electrification Effects on Value Creation and Employment Structures for the Automotive Industry in the Federal State of Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany

The transformation path to electric mobility will have fundamental impacts on the existing value chain and employment structures in the automotive industry. The purpose of this paper is to derive and examine these effects based on two different electric mobility market scenarios for the European (EU27) passenger car as well as truck market 2040 with special focus on the highly export-oriented industrial automotive cluster in Baden-Wuerttemberg. To achieve this, both a moderate and a progressive market scenario were simulated using the scientifically validated DLR VECTOR21 vehicle technology scenario model, based on two different parameter sets derived from actual and possible framework conditions on the European car and truck markets. Based on a detailed analysis of the industrial branch, value creation, and employee structure in Baden-Wuerttemberg and its automotive cluster, the effects resulting from the transformation to electric mobility will be displayed. With detailed Fade-In and Fade-Out analysis, the shifts from internal combustion engine components to electrified components will be derived and illustrated for each employee segment in the automotive cluster in Baden-Wuerttemberg, which leads to completely new and original results at this level of detail. Furthermore, the detailed display of the automotive cluster in this study allows for regionalized statements on employment effects, considering, for the first time, not only the car but also the truck segment. The analysis shows that battery electric vehicles will achieve a share of 34% or 57% for new registrations on the German car market in 2030, depending on the scenario framework conditions. The resulting employment effects for the entire automotive cluster in Baden-Wuerttemberg reach −37,000 (−8%) or −66,000 (−14%) by 2030 with further negative development until 2040 (−155,000, −30%) for the respective scenarios. Employment segments, in particular powertrain-dependent production employees, are at risk, with a potential decline of up to −60%. R&D employees could be also be significantly, affected with a reduction in workforce of about −50%.