Climate change creates opportunities to expand agriculture in the Hindu Kush Himalaya but will cause considerable ecosystem trade-offs

Theoretically, climate change will create warmer temperatures and greater precipitation in mountainous regions, making agriculture possible in areas that were once unsuitable for cropping. But the extent and the nature of these ‘agricultural frontiers’ is as yet unknown. Building upon recent research on Climate Change Driven Agricultural Frontiers [CCDAFs], this paper assesses the potential of agricultural expansion in the Hindukush Himalaya [HKH]. Using FAO crop suitability data, we estimated the extent of CCDAFs under three Representative Concentration Pathways for 13 crops as well as the potential impacts of developing these frontiers on ecosystem services. We show that under climate change projected by the IPSL- CM5A-LR climate model, 34,507 km 2 of agricultural frontiers may emerge in the HKH by 2100 under RCP 6.0. Additionally, results suggest that there will be new opportunities for crop diversification as individual crops will gain frontier area. However, developing these CCDAFs will impact supportive and regulating ecosystem services including carbon storage and sequestration, soil quality, biodiversity, and hydrological processes—with implications for regional water security. These impacts must be considered alongside the benefits of additional food production when evaluating the net benefits of developing CCDAFS.