A method for measuring returns to nonprice export promotion with application to almonds

A formula is derived to indicate the marginal returns to nonprice promotion for a competitive industry that promotes in both the domestic and the export market and receives a subsidy for export promotion. Private returns to export promotion are an increasing function of the export promotion elasticity, the export share, and the promotion subsidy and a decreasing function of the domestic supply elasticity, the absolute values of the domestic and export demand elasticities, and opportunity cost. Applying the formula to almond promotion and using previously estimated elasticities, no firm conclusions can be made regarding the effectiveness of export promotion, chiefly because the estimated promotion elasticities are unstable. Assuming that the domestic promotion elasticity is robust, it appears that domestic market promotion is underfunded from a producer-welfare perspective unless the marginal rate of return on alternative uses of promotion funds is high, on the order of 115%.