Simulating the effects of medicaid expansion on the opioid epidemic in North Carolina

Expanding Medicaid plays a large role in ensuring that people across the United States have access to health care services. Although North Carolina recently moved toward Medicaid expansion, the impact of expansion on overdoses and overdose mortality may vary based on the type of treatment (offering medications for opioid use disorder [MOUD] vs. offering inpatient medically managed withdrawal without linkage to further MOUD treatment or non–MOUD-based treatment) accessed by individuals newly eligible for treatment through expansion. Based on official North Carolina statistics and published peer-reviewed literature, we developed a simulation model that forecasts opioid overdose and mortality under different scenarios for type of treatment accessed (MOUD-based vs. non–MOUD-based) and Medicaid coverage levels. An optimistic scenario assuming 70 % of individuals newly eligible for treatment would enter treatment during the first year of expansion estimated that 332 (Simulation Interval: 246–412) overdose deaths would be averted. A scenario more in line with recent historical trends assuming 38 % of individuals newly eligible for treatment would enter treatment resulted in 213 (Simulation Interval: 157–263) averted overdose deaths. In all scenarios, MOUD-based treatment approaches increased the number of lives saved compared with approaches expanding opioid treatment through non–MOUD-based treatment. Our study emphasized the need to ensure access to MOUD-based treatment for individuals newly covered by the Medicaid expansion. •A simulation estimated the effects of Medicaid expansion and MOUD-based treatment.•Focusing on MOUD for those newly eligible could avert 1704 overdoses yearly.•Prioritizing MOUD averted 2x the number of opioid-related mortalities.