The Theoretical and Applied Aspects of Evaluating the Level of Demographic Security of Regions

The article is aimed at improving the theoretical and methodical approaches to evaluating the level of demographic security of regions. On the basis of a review of existing scientific developments, the authors’ own approach to formulating the essence of the concept of «demographic security of region» is proposed, which is defined as a state of protection against threats and dangers, with ensuring the formation and maintenance of positive dynamics of both quantitative and qualitative parameters in the reproductive processes of the population of territory, their optimal balance, stability toward depopulation, and sustainable development. The authors have developed a methodical instrumentarium to evaluate the level of demographic security of regions, which is based on the most significant indicators, characterizing the presence, processes of reproduction, population movement, as well as allowing to identify major threats, dangers and fully estimate the status of the demographic situation of territory. On the basis of the points evaluation method and calculation of an integrated indicator, regions have been grouped by the critically low, low, medium, high and highest levels of demographic security. The region-leaders include the city of Kyiv - with the highest and Volyn, Chernivitsi, Rivne, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Odesa, Zakarpattya regions - with a high level of demographic security. Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhya, Poltava regions are defined as outsider regions with the low level of security. The main threats to the demographic security of most regions of Ukraine remain high mortality rates, reduction of natural and migration population growth, exacerbation of depopulation processes. Prospects for further research in this direction are to substantiate the mutual relationship of demographic security with other components of the regional public system based on the use of the instrumentarium of cluster, factor analysis and economic and the economic-mathematical modeling tools.