An ice‐obligate seabird responds to a multi‐decadal decline in Arctic sea ice

The Arctic has experienced greatly decreased sea ice and increased ocean temperatures in recent decades but there is a paucity of biological time‐series data allowing assessment of resulting temporal variation in the region's marine ecosystems. Seabirds, as highly mobile and highly visible, upper trophic‐level predators, can be valuable monitors of modifications in marine ecosystems, especially for regions lacking commercial fisheries or regular oceanographic sampling. Since 1975, we have studied annually an Arctic Alaskan colony of Mandt's black guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandtii), an ice‐obligate diving seabird, specializing on Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), the primary forage fish of the ice‐associated cryopelagic ecosystem. Using multi‐state capture–mark–recapture models, matrix population models, and perturbation analysis, we quantified the environmental and demographic drivers of population change from 1980 to 2019 for the individually marked population. The colony increased rapidly, from 200 breeding pairs from 1975 to 1990 in response to increased availability of nesting cavities, before experiencing intermittent declines to