Validation of a Classification Model Using Complete Blood Count to Predict Severe Human Adenovirus Lower Respiratory Tract Infections in Pediatric Cases

Human adenovirus (HAdV) lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) are prone to severe cases and even cause death in children. Here, we aimed to develop a classification model to predict severity in pediatric patients with HAdV LRTIs using complete blood count (CBC). The CBC parameters from pediatric patients with a diagnosis of HAdV LRTIs from 2013 to 2019 were collected during the disease's course. The data were analyzed as potential predictors for severe cases and were selected using a random forest model. We enrolled 1,652 CBC specimens from 1,069 pediatric patients with HAdV LRTIs in the present study. Four hundred and seventy-four patients from 2017 to 2019 were used as the discovery cohort, and 470 patients from 2013 to 2016 were used as the validation cohort. The monocyte ratio (MONO%) was the most obvious difference between the mild and severe groups at onset, and could be used as a marker for the early accurate prediction of the severity [area under the subject operating characteristic curve (AUROC): 0.843]. Four risk factors [MONO%, hematocrit (HCT), red blood cell count (RBC), and platelet count (PLT)] were derived to construct a classification model of severe and mild cases using a random forest model (AUROC: 0.931 vs. 0.903). Monocyte ratio can be used as an individual predictor of severe cases in the early stages of HAdV LRTIs. The four risk factors model is a simple and accurate risk assessment tool that can predict severe cases in the early stages of HAdV LRTIs.