Study of regional demand for timber industry products in the context of external sanctions pressures

At the beginning of 2022, the timber industry complex of the Russian Federation fully faced the following risks: a complete ban on the export of untreated wood; the introduction of restrictive sanctions in key foreign markets. Until recently, there was a widespread belief that the timber industry of the Far East would suffer the least due to sanctions, since China is the main consumer country of unprocessed wood in this region. However, in the course of the study, it was revealed that due to the reversal of the flows of products of Western timber enterprises to the east, competition for the Chinese market increased; overstocking in this market resulted in a drop of the prices. The export of products, even of shallow processing, has become unprofitable for the timber processors of the Khabarovsk Territory; its enterprises are reducing production, suffering losses. Under these conditions, domestic consumption should become an important factor determining the demand for the products of the timber industry in the long term. The article is devoted to the study of the potential (volume and structure) of the domestic market for the sale of timber products in the Khabarovsk Territory. Based on the analysis of the results of the timber industry activities in the Territory, trends in the structure of production and export of enterprises were identified, the dynamics of production and consumption of timber products of the LPC of the region in the domestic market of the region were shown. In the course of the study, an analysis of state projects and programs in the field of the forest industry, as well as interviewing of specialists of the Khabarovsk Territory Government were carried out. On the basis of the collected materials, real and potential products, and industries (spheres) of their application were designated in the context of the reallocation of the timber industry complex of the region. The annual volume of timber products falling out of exports was determined, the internal market for the sale of LPC products was evaluated, the potential consumption of lumber was calculated under various development scenarios in the regional market. The prospects for the production and use of biofuels in the housing and communal services of the Khabarovsk Territory were substantiated, additional directions for the use of low-grade wood and woodworking waste were proposed.