Synergistic control potential of flue gas pollutants under Ultra-Low emission standards in waste incineration plants

[Display omitted] •Significant regional imbalance was observed between coastal and inland regions in 2020.•Waste composition and OE were quantified as the main drivers to differences of EFs.•PM is recommended as indicative pollutant of Cd + Tl and Sb + As + Pb + Cr + Co + Cu + Mn + Ni.•Series models were developed to predict control process of FGPs and corresponding EFs.•EFs would decrease in 2030, while regional imbalance would be partially extended. As the dominant waste disposal process, incineration is regarded as the main incentive for the “not-in-my-backyard” syndrome, and faces an inescapable pressures of ultra-low emissions (ULE). Establishing precise response relationships between emission factors (EFs) and full-process influencing factors can provide guidance for the synergistic mitigation of flue gas pollutants (FGPs). In this work, the multi-dimensional EFs of FGPs were identified by initially integrating FGPs concentration monitoring data of existing 1,226 processing lines in China, technologies applied and operational experience (OE), local economic and political characteristics. Significant regional imbalance performance was observed, which EFs in the coastal regions were 3.55–92.39 % lower than those of the inland areas. NOx, SO2, HCl were identified as critical components requiring further reduction under the ULE standards, with exceedance rates recorded at 73.07 %, 38.90 %, and 56.69 %, respectively. An indicative value of 20 mg/m3 for PM is recommended for the control of heavy metals of Cd + Tl and Sb + As + Pb + Cr + Co + Cu + Mn + Ni based on the correlation coefficients of r = 0.28 (p