A Molecular Signature Determines the Prognostic and Therapeutic Subtype of Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer Responsive to Intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Guérin Therapy

Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) is clinically heterogeneous; thus, many patients fail to respond to treatment and relapse. Here, we identified a molecular signature that is both prognostic and predictive for NMIBC heterogeneity and responses to Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) therapy. Transcriptomic profiling of 948 NMIBC patients identified a signature-based subtype predictor, MSP888, along with three distinct molecular subtypes: DP.BCG+ (related to progression and response to BCG treatment), REC.BCG+ (related to recurrence and response to BCG treatment), and EP (equivocal prognosis). Patients with the DP.BCG+ subtype showed worse progression-free survival but responded to BCG treatment, whereas those with the REC.BCG+ subtype showed worse recurrence-free survival but responded to BCG treatment. Multivariate analyses revealed that MSP888 showed independent clinical utility for predicting NMIBC prognosis (each = 0.001 for progression and recurrence, respectively). Comparative analysis of this classifier and previously established molecular subtypes (i.e., Lund taxonomy and UROMOL class) revealed that a great proportion of patients were similar between subtypes; however, the MSP888 predictor better differentiated biological activity or responsiveness to BCG treatment. Our data increase our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the poor prognosis of NMIBC and the effectiveness of BCG therapy, which should improve clinical practice and complement other diagnostic tools.