A Numerical Assessment and Prediction for Meeting the Demand for Agricultural Water and Sustainable Development in Irrigation Area

The demand for agricultural water is a growing problem in irrigated regions across the globe, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Changes in the level of groundwater in irrigation districts will affect the flow of surface water connected to the aquifer, which may damage the sustainability of water resources and ecosystems. In this study, a two-dimensional unsteady flow model based on MODFLOW was constructed and three scenarios were established to assess the demand for agricultural water in the Jiaokou Irrigation District. The results show that the groundwater in the study area is basically balanced. However, the supply of irrigation water for summer irrigation is insufficient. The results of the model prediction indicate that when groundwater is primarily used for irrigation (scenario 1), the maximum water level decrease is 25 m, which is beyond this limit (15 m). When the ratio of groundwater to surface water is 2:1 for irrigation (scenario 2), the largest decrease in water level is approximately 10 m. Scenario 3 is proposed based on the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project to prevent the salinization of soil owing to the rise in water level, and its result shows that the maximum decrease and buried depth are approximately 5 m and above 3 m, respectively, indicating that the scenario is more reasonable and sustainable. These findings provide theoretical guidance to protect water resources and prevent water pollution and should serve as a reference for rationally allocating water resources in other irrigation districts in arid and semi-arid areas.