Curve-Modelling and Machine Learning for a Better COPD Diagnosis

Development of new tools in artificial intelligence has an outstanding performance in the recognition of multidimensional patterns, which is why they have proven to be useful in the diagnosis of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). This was an observational analytical single-centre study in patients with spirometry performed in outpatient medical care. The segment that goes from the peak expiratory flow to the forced vital capacity was modelled with quadratic polynomials, the coefficients obtained were used to train and test neural networks in the task of classifying patients with COPD. A total of 695 patient records were included in the analysis. The COPD group was significantly older than the No COPD group. The pre-bronchodilator (Pre BD) and post-bronchodilator (Post BD) spirometric curves were modelled with a quadratic polynomial, and the coefficients obtained were used to feed three neural networks (Pre BD, Post BD and all coefficients). The best neural network was the one that used the post-bronchodilator coefficients, which has an input layer of 3 neurons and three hidden layers with sigmoid activation function and two neurons in the output layer with softmax activation function. This system had an accuracy of 92.9% accuracy, a sensitivity of 88.2% and a specificity of 94.3% when assessed using expert judgment as the reference test. It also showed better performance than the current gold standard, especially in specificity and negative predictive value. Artificial Neural Networks fed with coefficients obtained from quadratic and cubic polynomials have interesting potential of emulating the clinical diagnostic process and can become an important aid in primary care to help diagnose COPD in an early stage.