Prognostic significance of AKR1C4 and the advantage of combining EBV DNA to stratify patients at high risk of locoregional recurrence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Background Distinguishing patients at a greater risk of recurrence is essential for treating locoregional advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). This study aimed to explore the potential of aldo-keto reductase 1C4 (AKR1C4) in stratifying patients at high risk of locoregional relapse. Methods A total of 179 patients with locoregionally advanced NPC were grouped by different strategies; they were: (a) divided into two groups according to AKR1C4 expression level, and (b) classified into three clusters by integrating AKR1C4 and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate locoregional relapse-free survival (LRFS), overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine potential prognostic factors, and a nomogram was generated to predict 3-year and 5-year LRFS. Results A significant difference in the 5-year LRFS was observed between the high and low AKR1C4 expression groups (83.3% vs. 92.7%, respectively; p = 0.009). After integrating AKR1C4 expression and EBV DNA, the LRFS (84.7%, 84.5%, 96.9%, p = 0.014) of high-, intermediate-, and low- AKR1C4 and EBV DNA was also significant. Multivariate analysis indicated that AKR1C4 expression (p = 0.006) was an independent prognostic factor for LRFS. The prognostic factors incorporated into the nomogram were AKR1C4 expression, T stage, and EBV DNA, and the concordance index of the nomogram for locoregional relapse was 0.718. Conclusions In conclusion, high AKR1C4 expression was associated with a high possibility of relapse in NPC patients, and integrating EBV DNA and AKR1C4 can stratify high-risk patients with locoregional recurrence. Keywords: AKR1C4, EBV DNA, Recurrence, Nomogram, Nasopharyngeal carcinoma