Effects of genetic and environmental trends from 1970 to 2020 on farm efficiency estimated with a whole-farm modeling system

The list of standard abbreviations for JDS is available at adsa.org/jds-abbreviations-24. Nonstandard abbreviations are available in the Notes. The objectives of this study were to evaluate associations of genetic change, cow management and nutrition, inbreeding, and crop yields from 1970 to 2020 with measures of production and economic efficiency according to a whole-farm model, and to evaluate effects of genetic change in individual traits on economic efficiency in comparison to expectations from economic selection indexes. Genetic and phenotypic performance metrics for Holsteins from 1970 and 2020 were retrieved and input into the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) for a 7,000-cow Texas herd and a 50-cow Pennsylvania grazing herd. Crop yields estimates from 1970 and 2020 were retrieved, and farm hectarage was altered so that forage and energy concentrate requirements were met through farm production; likewise, scenarios evaluating effects of atmospheric CO2 fertilization (CO2F) on crop yield were evaluated by altering farm hectarage. For single traits that could be dynamically modeled by IFSM, performance shifts and resulting change in product prices or management expenses were added to 1970 base models. Economic efficiency was evaluated as the per-cow return to management and unpaid factors as compared with 1970 base models. As averaged across state scenarios, gains in economic efficiency were +$945 and −$76 for additive genetic and inbreeding effects, respectively, for a total gain from genetic change of +$869. Genetic gain in fat yield (+$549) and protein yield (+$524) were responsible for most of the genetic gain, whereas milk yield (−$128) and increased cow BW (−$129) depressed economic efficiency. Genetic change in productive life had a smaller effect (+$44) than predicted unless heifers were purchased and at double the default value. Gains due to cow management and nutrition increased efficiency by +$666 and crop yield increased efficiency by +$711, of which +$371 was attributed to CO2F across scenarios. Whole-farm DM efficiencies derived as the ratio of fat- and protein-corrected milk yield to DMI increased from 0.82 (PA) and 0.97 (TX) in 1970 to 1.20 in 2020 and could be higher if farms reduce the size of their replacement herd by producing beef calves. The landmass required in 2020 was 63% and 78% of the 1970 requirement for Texas and Pennsylvania, respectively. Changes in cow genetic merit, management and nutrition, and crop yields have all