Prognostic value of longitudinal HbA1c variability in predicting the development of diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A prospective cohort observational study

ABSTRACT Aims/Introduction This prospective cohort study aims to identify the optimal measure of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) variability and to explore its relationship with the development of new diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy (DSPN) in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, building upon previous cross‐sectional studies that highlighted a significant association between HbA1c visit‐to‐visit variability and DSPN. Materials and Methods In a prospective study, 321 participants diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus underwent comprehensive clinical assessments, neurophysiologic studies, and laboratory evaluations at enrollment and follow‐up. Various indices, including HbA1c standard deviation (HbA1c SD), coefficient of variation (HbA1c CV), HbA1c change score (HbA1c HVS), and average real variability (HbA1c ARV), were employed to calculate the visit‐to‐visit variability HbA1c based on 3 month intervals. The investigation focused on examining the associations between these indices and the development of new DSPN. Results The average follow‐up duration was 16.9 ± 6.9 months. The Cox proportional hazards model identified age (P = 0.001), diabetes duration (P = 0.024), and HbA1C ARV (P = 0.031) as the sole factors associated with the development of new DSPN. Furthermore, the cumulative risk of developing DSPN over 1 year demonstrated a significant association with HbA1C ARV (P = 0.03, log‐rank test). Conclusions Apart from age and diabetes duration, HbA1c variability emerged as a robust predictor for the occurrence of new DSPN. Among the various measures of HbA1c variability evaluated, HbA1c ARV demonstrated the highest potential as a reliable indicator for anticipating the onset of new DSPN. In addition to age and diabetes duration, HbA1c variability was identified as a strong predictor for the development of a new DSPN. Among the different measures of HbA1c variability examined, HbA1c ARV showed the greatest potential as a dependable indicator for predicting the onset of new DSPN.