Prediction of solar activity on the basis of spectral characteristics of sunspot number

Prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 23 and 24 is performed on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral components. Sunspot number data during 1933-1996 periods (solar cycles 17-22) are searched for periodicities by iterative regression. The periods significant at the...

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Veröffentlicht in:Annales geophysicae (1988) 2004-06, Vol.22 (6), p.2239-2243
Hauptverfasser: ECHER, E, RIGOZO, N. R, NORDEMANN, D. J. R, VIEIRA, L. E. A
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Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:Prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 23 and 24 is performed on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral components. Sunspot number data during 1933-1996 periods (solar cycles 17-22) are searched for periodicities by iterative regression. The periods significant at the 95% confidence level were used in a sum of sine series to reconstruct sunspot series, to predict the strength of solar cycles 23 and 24. The maximum peak of solar cycles is adequately predicted (cycle 21: 158±13.2 against an observed peak of 155.4; cycle 22: 178
ISSN:0992-7689
1432-0576
1432-0576
DOI:10.5194/angeo-22-2239-2004