Spatiotemporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the State of Kuwait

•COVID-19 was found to have distinct spreading and clustering patterns within migrant worker, citizen and resident communities in Kuwait.•Densely populated areas and poor living conditions of migrant workers resulted in the highest number of significant spreading and clustering events within their c...

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Veröffentlicht in:International journal of infectious diseases 2020-09, Vol.98, p.153-160
Hauptverfasser: Alkhamis, Moh A., Al Youha, Sarah, Khajah, Mohammad M., Ben Haider, Nour, Alhardan, Sumayah, Nabeel, Ahmad, Al Mazeedi, Sulaiman, Al-Sabah, Salman K.
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Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:•COVID-19 was found to have distinct spreading and clustering patterns within migrant worker, citizen and resident communities in Kuwait.•Densely populated areas and poor living conditions of migrant workers resulted in the highest number of significant spreading and clustering events within their communities.•Targeted intervention measures within migrant worker communities substantially lowered the magnitude of spreading and number of clustering events.•Increased epidemic growth reflected by the predicted cases and the number of emerging clusters was seen by the end of the study period in Kuwait. Prompt understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of the COVID-19 pandemic on a national level is a critical step for the timely allocation of surveillance resources. Therefore, this study explored the temporal and spatiotemporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kuwait using daily confirmed case data collected between the 23 February and 07 May 2020. The pandemic progression was quantified using the time-dependent reproductive number (R(t)). The spatiotemporal scan statistic model was used to identify local clustering events. Variability in transmission dynamics was accounted for within and between two socioeconomic classes: citizens-residents and migrant workers. The pandemic size in Kuwait continues to grow (R(t)s ≥2), indicating significant ongoing spread. Significant spreading and clustering events were detected among migrant workers, due to their densely populated areas and poor living conditions. However, the government's aggressive intervention measures have substantially lowered pandemic growth in migrant worker areas. However, at a later stage of the study period, active spreading and clustering events among both socioeconomic classes were found. This study provided deeper insights into the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Kuwait and provided an important platform for rapid guidance of decisions related to intervention activities.
ISSN:1201-9712
1878-3511
DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.078