Predicting short-term weight loss using four leading health behavior change theories

This study was conceived to analyze how exercise and weight management psychosocial variables, derived from several health behavior change theories, predict weight change in a short-term intervention. The theories under analysis were the Social Cognitive Theory, the Transtheoretical Model, the Theory of Planned Behavior, and Self-Determination Theory. Subjects were 142 overweight and obese women (BMI = 30.2 +/- 3.7 kg/m2; age = 38.3 +/- 5.8 y), participating in a 16-week University-based weight control program. Body weight and a comprehensive psychometric battery were assessed at baseline and at program's end. Weight decreased significantly (-3.6 +/- 3.4%, p < .001) but with great individual variability. Both exercise and weight management psychosocial variables improved during the intervention, with exercise-related variables showing the greatest effect sizes. Weight change was significantly predicted by each of the models under analysis, particularly those including self-efficacy. Bivariate and multivariate analyses results showed that change in variables related to weight management had a stronger predictive power than exercise-specific predictors and that change in weight management self-efficacy was the strongest individual correlate (p < .05). Among exercise predictors, with the exception of self-efficacy, importance/effort and intrinsic motivation towards exercise were the stronger predictors of weight reduction (p < .05). The present models were able to predict 20-30% of variance in short-term weight loss and changes in weight management self-efficacy accounted for a large share of the predictive power. As expected from previous studies, exercise variables were only moderately associated with short-term outcomes; they are expected to play a larger explanatory role in longer-term results.