Mechanism analysis of ecosystem services (ES) changes under the proposed supply-demand framework: A case study of Jiangsu Province, China

•Socioeconomic factors drive ES changes indirectly from the demand side.•Natural factors as supply-side factors, directly or indirectly affect ES.•ES change processes flow according to the supply–demand framework.•SEM was used to investigate the mechanism of ES changes.•This research contributes to the construction of a coupled socio-ecological system. Characterizing the structure, process, and function of ecosystems, ecosystem services (ES) closely impacts human well-being. It is significant to reveal the complex pathways of factors driving ES based on the supply–demand framework to supplement knowledge about ES change. Therefore, A conceptual framework of ES change from the supply–demand perspective was constructed first. Then, the structural equation model (SEM) method was employed to reveal the mechanism of ES changes driven by socioeconomic and natural ecological factors and to measure their direct and indirect effects. The main findings are: The social and economic factors indirectly affect ES, with effects of −0.549 and −0.154, respectively, from the demand side. Natural conditions, as the supply-side factors, directly and indirectly affect ES, with effects of 4.342 and −1.721. Land use directly acts on ES from the supply side as an intermediary that links the socioeconomic factors and natural conditions, with a direct effect of −2.735. The effect sizes of drivers on different ES are different, however generally conform to the proposed mechanism framework. This study follows the theory of Coupled Human and Natural Systems and contributes to the construction of resilient social-ecological system.