Trend and Forecast Analysis of Premature Mortality Probability by Four Major Non-communicable Diseases in Baise from 2015 to 2021

Background The disease burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among residents in China is relatively severe, which had become an important influencing factor in limiting the increase of healthy life expectancy of the population. Objective To identify the premature mortality of four major NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases) and the achievement of "Health China 2030" goal in Baise from 2015 to 2021, so as to provide reference for the development of prevention and control strategies for NCDs in western poverty-stricken regions. Methods The mortality data registered in the cause of death surveillance system of the Baise Center for Disease Prevention and Control from 2015-2021 was collected, indicators such as mortality and the probability of premature mortality were calculated, Joinpoint 24.0 software was used to describe the trend of change in terms of average annual percentage change (AAPC) and rate. Results The crude mortality of the four ma