Nowcasting the lightning activity in Peninsular Malaysia using the GPS PWV during the 2009 inter-monsoons

The spatial and temporal radio wave delay of the Global Positioning System (GPS) signal can be manipulated to estimate the precipitable water vapor (PWV) which favorable for meteorological applications. A rapid change of the water vapor amount was a precondition for the unbalanced atmospheric charges, which noticeably associated with the development of convective cloud as a lightning chamber. According to this fact, GPS derived PWV will be utilized to nowcasting the lightning event for the next couple of hours. The variances of PWV of four-selected station of the Peninsular Malaysia during the past two inter-monsoons events in May and November 2009 were analyzed. To clarify the response, the changes of PWV in hourly Δ (max-min) before the lightning event was investigated with minimum value 2 mm and is maintained at least three consecutive hours. There are 177 samples were extracted from this method and 69% of the sample showed the lightning occurrence with an average duration was after the six consecutive hours. The lightning day with 2 mm Δ was also higher than the fair weather of 6.3%. These findings suggest that the GPS data can be proposed further as a guide to nowcast the occurrence of lightning activity.